Pictured: Brad Keselowski, driver of the #6 BuildSubmarines.com Ford Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.

NASCAR best bets: Odds, picks, predictions for Darlington on Sun. 5/12

Originally posted on Action Network | By PJ Walsh | Last updated 5/11/24

NASCAR odds for Darlington are open for Sunday's Goodyear 400 (3 p.m. ET, FS1) and I'm not wasting any time before jumping in.

First off, when there are NASCAR picks you want to make, why wait for the odds to potentially shorten?

In addition, I will be off the grid for most of Sunday to celebrate the holiday with my family. So, I'm snagging these two outrights right now for the Goodyear 400 at Darlington.

NASCAR Odds, Picks for Darlington

*Odds as of Saturday night

Denny Hamlin (+500) to Win — BetMGM

Bears. Beets. Battlestar Galactica.

Death. Taxes. Denny Hamlin at tire-wear tracks.

If you've been reading my articles recently, you know how much I love Hamlin at tracks that wear out tires.

Darlington is on such a track, so I'm going back to the wishing well (Blink-182 joke).

It should be no surprise that Hamlin excels here, though his recent stats might be misleading.

While posting just the 11th-best average finish at Darlington in the Next Gen era, Hamlin has actually led the most laps while running the third-most fast laps.

The No. 11 Toyota was fast in practice on Saturday and secured a seventh-place starting position in qualifying, so I see little reason to doubt that he'll be among the best cars again on Sunday.

Brad Keselowski (+1200) to Win — BetMGM

While me betting on Hamlin (again) shouldn't be a surprise, grabbing Keselowski might be.

After an ugly 34th-place finish at Darlington in the spring of 2022, Keselowski has rattled off seventh-, fourth- and sixth-place results in the past three races here.

The driver of the No. 6 RFK Ford was also extremely fast in practice, posting the third-best 20-lap average and the fourth-best 25-lap average, showing that this car has speed as the tires fall off.

And when it comes to Keselowski, perhaps the most important piece of data is his second-place qualifying effort.

This team has struggled in qualifying all season, with a best starting position of just 13th (Martinsville) coming into this weekend's race.

Keselowski has a fast car in race trim, a great starting position and will finally have the luxury of a top pit stall, making his 12-1 price very enticing.

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